Militant Leadership Monitor (MLM) is a unique source of information covering the leading personalities behind the world's major insurgent and militant movements. 

Purchase one electronic copy (PDF) of the two briefs and four articles in Militant Leadership Monitor's January 2012 publication.

Briefs:

Abu Shekau Issues Video Message To Nigerian President

Peruvian Army Presses Proseguit Faction

Articles:

Post-Mortem Analysis: A Brief Profile Of North Caucasian Militant Commander Biaslan Gochiyaev By Mairbek Vatchagaev

A Snapshot of Brigadier Ijaz Shah: Bin Laden’s ISI Handler By Arif Jamal

Abu Baker al-Husseini Brings Al-Qaeda’s Iraqi Affiliate Back to Center Stage By Rafid Fadhil Ali

The Mastermind of Mayhem in Mumbai: A Profile of Lashkar-e-Taiba’s Zaki-ur Rahman Lakhvi By Animesh Roul

To purchase a full annual subscription to Militant Leadership Monitor please visit mlm.jamestown.org.

Militant Leadership Monitor (MLM) is a unique source of information covering the leading personalities behind the world's major insurgent and militant movements. 

Purchase one electronic copy (PDF) of the two briefs and four articles in Militant Leadership Monitor's December 2011 publication.

Briefs:

Dissident South Sudan Leader Killed In Internecine Clash

Veteran Jihadi Released From Algerian Custody

Articles:

Al-Qaeda's Uighur Jihadi: A Profile of the Tukistan Islamic Party's Abdul Shakoor Turkistani By Jacob Zenn

From Ally to Adversary: Sheikh Ahmed Madobe's War on Al-Shabaab By Muhyadin Ahmed Roble

Amir of the Southern Sahara: A Fresh Look at AQIM's Mokhtar Belmokhtar By Dario Cristiani

Yemen's Transition: Who's Who in the Yemeni Opposition By Jeb Boone

To purchase a full annual subscription to Militant Leadership Monitor please visit mlm.jamestown.org.

Jamestown presents a complete summary of the May 12, 2011 event entitled 'The Future of Kazakhstan After the Presidential Election Event Summary' featuring discussions byJamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor, Janusz Bugajski, Ambassador William Courtney, and Ambassador Erlan Idrissov. 

For a free hard copy of this report, please pay $10.00 shipping and handling (domestic shipping only). We apologize, international shipping is not available for this item.

*To download a free digital copy of the full report, please click here.

Pakistan’s Punjab Province is home to some of the world’s most insidious terrorist groups and Islamist political organizations. Islamist and jihadist groups, organized under different Islamic sects, have flourished in Punjab and among Punjabis elsewhere. The roots of Islamist militancy in the Muslim Punjab can be traced to the Muslim revolt against the Hindu Maharaja of the erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir in July 1931. The revolt gave birth to the Majlis-Ahrar-Islam (Ahrars for short) in the British Punjab. The Ahrars have served as a model for all subsequent Deobandi, and arguably Salafist, Islamist/jihadist groups that give and take lives in the name of religion. The rise of Deobandi Islamist/jihadist groups since the foundation of the Ahrars has continued unabated. However, their rise became steep after the Pakistan army started raising militias to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan. The United States has given billions of dollars to the Pakistan army, but failed to break its alliance with the jihadists. Neither the intensification of the jihadists’ war on the Pakistan army nor the increase in military aid to Pakistan by the United States is likely to convince Pakistan to go after the Islamist terrorists indiscriminately. Hence, the war on terror cannot be won without a resolution to the Kashmir conflict.

The Taiwan Navy can no longer keep up with a Chinese military that commands vast material preponderance, both quantitative and, increasingly, qualitative. It should no longer try. Nevertheless, the strategic vision set forth by the Republic of China Navy (ROCN), or Taiwan Navy, aims at “sea control” in the waters adjoining Taiwan. Such supremacy is elusive following years of robust economic growth that enable Beijing to boost the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) budget by double digits every year. In short, the balance of maritime power favors Beijing and will continue to do so. Sea control increasingly lies beyond Taipei’s grasp. While sea control eludes the ROCN, sea power does not. “Sea denial”—the naval strategy of the weaker contender—promises to let Taipei ride out a Chinese onslaught for long enough to matter. Prosecuting a sea-denial strategy demands that the ROCN forego its desire for sea control and break with its longstanding approach to naval strategy.

During Secretary of Defense Robert Gates's visit to China in January 2011, he stressed the importance of solid military-to-military relations. As a result of this visit, the U.S. Air Force (USAF) and People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) will hopefully engage each other through military exchanges across a wide range of issues rather than in combat. The purpose of this report is to help analysts at different levels (tactical, operational, and strategic) examine and engage the PLAAF using the Ten Pillars as a base. The Ten Pillars include organizational structure, leadership, doctrine, officer corps, enlisted force, education, training, logistics and maintenance, and foreign relations.

Russia has always had a difficult time reconciling itself to accepting Ukraine as an independent state and a country that is outside its sphere of influence. Russia has an even more impossible time recognizing Ukraine’s sovereignty over the Crimea and the port of Sevastopol - as seen by public opinion in Russia, statements by politicians, including members of the ruling United Russia party, experts and journalists. The signing of an inter-state treaty in 1997 recognizing the Russian-Ukrainian border also paved the way for a compromise twenty year Russian lease of the Sevastopol navy base for the Black Sea Fleet (BSF). Four factors have unraveled this compromise, including Russia’s desire to re-establish itself internationally as a Great Power, the 2004 Orange Revolution and the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia. In “The Crimea: Europe’s Next Flashpoint?” Kuzio addresses these factors and more in an in-depth analysis of Russian-Ukraine relations and the future of the Crimea and the port of Sevastopol.

Given the recent “reset” policy put in place by the Obama administration with regards to Russia policy, a closer look into the Kremlin’s arm sales practices might prove critical for anyone attempting to decipher Moscow’s foreign policy ambitions.  In Shrinking Ground: Russia’s Decline in Global Arms Sales from The Jamestown Foundation, Dr. Stephen Blank examines these alarming strategic patterns of the Russian arms industry in various key markets around the world, including Latin America, India, China, and the Middle East.  With this report, JTF examines how Russia attempts to mask its slow decline in arms sales through its super power pretentions and rhetoric.  

“Changing of the Guard: Beijing Grooms Sixth-Generation Cadres for 2020s” details the major generational changes that will take place in the party-and-state leadership at the 18th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress set for October 2012. While Fifth Generation leaders like Vice-President Xi Jinping remain poised to accede to the position of general secretary and state president—and First Vice-Premier Li Keqiang will succeed Wen Jiabao as premier— General Secretary and President Hu Jintao has been personally overseeing the transition of power to-Fifth- and-Sixth-Generation cadres—a reference to officials born respectively in the 1950s and 1960s. With this report, JTF examines elite Chinese politics, especially factional intrigue and the grooming of China’s next leadership corps, in the run-up to and after the 18th Party Congress.

On February 24, 2006, the world’s largest oil refinery, the Abqaiq oil facility in Saudi Arabia, fell victim to a major attack by al-Qaeda. The strategic attack on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery nearly succeeded in knocking out of production the seven million barrel per day Abqaiq refinery which would have caused a major disruption in Saudi oil production. 

 
Prior to the attack, two Jamestown Foundation analysts accurately predicted one month before the incident and then again one day beforehand that such an attack was in the offing. As early as the January 18, 2006 issue of Jamestown publication Terrorism Focus, Senior Fellow Stephen Ulph first noted the tactical value for al-Qaeda in targeting oil facilities in the Gulf States. Through his use of indigenous sources, Ulph assessed how al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri had “been urging the targeting of oil installations in the Gulf States as part of the ‘bleed until bankrupt’ strategy against the United States.”

Four weeks later, Jamestown analyst John Daly predicted in the February 23, 2006 issue of Terrorism Monitor the high value and vulnerability of Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities to an attack by al-Qaeda. One day later the refinery suffered its first ever attack in an operation of immense strategic importance. This Occasional Paper is the collective analysis of Daly and Ulph, along with the insights of Michael Scheuer, founder of the Bin laden Unit at the Central Intelligence Agency.  Scheuer discusses the implications of the 2006 attack of Abqaiq, as well as the possibility of future attacks on Saudi oil facilities and the repercussions from such an attack on the Western economy.  

On December 9, 2009, the Jamestown Foundation organized a special panel on "Islamist Movements in the Horn of Africa" as part of its annual conference, the latter appropriately titled "The Changing Strategic Gravity of al-Qaeda".  This report is comprised of the proceedings from this important panel, including executive summaries, full text transcripts and power point presentations.  The following speakers and subject matter are featured in this report: 

Ambassador David H. Shinn examines the growing threat posed to Somalia's Transitional Federal Government by the radical Harakat al-Shabaab Mujahideen (Mujahideen Youth Movement).

Brian O'Neill looks at the changing security dynamics in Yemen, a state that is battling a tribal movement in the north, secessionism in the south and the expansion of a rejuvenated al-Qaeda organization in the nation's Sunni community.

Dr. Andrew McGregor addresses the factionalism that now permeates Islam in Somalia, a drastic change from the once uniform mode of worship that was a unifying force in the nation.

Andrew Black analyzes the massive trade in arms that links Yemen and the Horn of Africa across the Gulf of Aden, tracing the development of this trade from the Cold War era to present.

January 2010 marked the three-year anniversary of the merger between the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (or GSPC, as it is known by its French acronym) and al-Qaeda central.  The GSPC became the official wing of al-Qaeda in North Africa, under the title of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).  After a two-year period, in which this newly-luanched organization seemed to be busy organizing spectacular suicide terrorist attacks against primarily government targets in Algeria, there was suddenly a lull in the major attacks in the third year of AQIM's existence.  And apart from kidnapping Westerners in the Sahara between the Maghreb and the Sahel region, and a handful of attacks launched in Mauritania in 2009, AQIM seemed to have failed in its attempts to expand its theater of operations to the rest of the Arab countries that make up the Maghreb, a region that consists of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Mauritania.  This Occasional Paper will evaluate the strengths and weaknesses demonstrated by AQIM in the whole of the Maghreb during 2009 with particular comparison to the previous few years.  In doing so, it will also take into account the activities of AQIM in some of the Saharan countries known as the Sahel region.  Ultimately, it will aim to forecast those trends which AQIM will assume over the course of this coming year.

While the Arab Middle East is political Islam’s ideological and historical core, South Asia and Southeast Asia, concentrated in the Indonesian archipelago, make up the modern demographic core of the Muslim world. Advocates of political jihadism have been adept at exploiting pre-existing territorial and ethnic grievances, both perceived and real, in these highly complex and fragmented states. Terror networks in these tumultuous mega-regions have also been cleverly calculating in their agitation of simmering disputes that have arisen from the communal tensions of religious difference that have existed in varying degrees since the region’s violent Cold War-era decolonization.

To better understand the social fabric of terrorism in South and Southeast Asia, The Jamestown Foundation held a panel entitled, “Terrorist Trends in South Asia,” as a component of its annual terrorism conference on December 9th, 2009 at the National Press Club, "The Changing Strategic Gravity of al-Qaeda". The contents of that panel, including full transcripts, question and answer sessions, executive summaries, slide presentations, panelist biographies and the full transcript of keynote speaker Bruce Riedel's presentation. 

The tribal areas of Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) fully deserve President Barack Obama’s description as “the most dangerous place in the world”.  This remote and inhospitable region is only nominally under Pakistan's administration and its Pashtun tribesmen have a long history of opposing outside rule on their homeland. The Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) have today become a haven for the most vicious and desperate elements of the Islamist insurgency. This includes Osama bin Laden, who is widely believed to be taking shelter in Waziristan under the protection of the Pashtun tribesmen, whose code of honor obliges them to protect anyone seeking refuge. This paper brings to light the experience of the British, who fought a desperate 100-year war to gain supremacy in the strategic tribal areas. Britain on the North-West Frontier: Strategy, Tactics and Lessons describes the Pashtun tribesmen and examines the military tactics used to deal with the insurgents, from “butcher and bolt” destruction of their villages to the later deployment of air power and even straightforward bribery, none of which were met with lasting success. In the end, the fatal flaw may well have been in treating this as a strictly military problem instead of an economic one. Pakistan, which is now engaged in a fierce battle to  clean out the Islamist insurgents from Waziristan, may be forced to learn the same lesson.  

Tensions are on the rise in the South China Sea. Longstanding sovereignty disputes over the profusion of atolls, shoals and reefs that dot the 1.2 million square miles of sea, allied to extensive overlapping claims to maritime space, have been a source of serious interstate contention over the years, especially during the 1990s. A brief easing of tensions occurred in the first half of this decade due in part to China’s more accommodating and flexible attitude, which was part of a diplomatic “charm offensive” toward Southeast Asia intended to assuage regional anxieties over the country’s growing economic, political and military clout. Over the past several years, however, China has reverted to a more assertive posture in consolidating its jurisdictional claims, expanding its military reach and seeking to undermine the claims of other states through coercive diplomacy.

The ongoing struggle for control of Somalia is one of the world’s most complicated. With the country already effectively split into three parts, it may be too late to speak of a Somali nation. While the popular conception of this conflict pits al-Qaeda associated Islamists against a presumably Western-friendly Transitional Federal Government (TFG) that has the support of major Western powers and the United Nations, the reality is far more complex. Somalia is beset by separatist forces, clan rivalries, ideological differences and religious disputes, all of which threaten to tear the last threads from the fabric of Somali unity. Though Islamists now lead both the government and the armed opposition, this has brought resolution of the conflict no closer.  Self-declared autonomous or independent regions like Puntland and Somaliland are unlikely to ever submit to the authority of Mogadishu and there are several regions ready to follow their example. With Sufis fighting Salafists on the battlefields of central and southern Somalia, Islam appears to have passed from one of the main forces behind Somali unity to one of its most divisive elements. The Who’s Who of the Somali Insurgency is an essential guide to the disparate forces and individuals seeking to split, conquer or unify this long troubled nation in the strategic Horn of Africa region.

The year 2009 will go down in history as a watershed for the epochal expansion of China’s global influence. With its economy tipped to grow at 8 percent despite the world financial crisis, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is widely regarded as a prime locomotive for economic recovery worldwide. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is building nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers, and the country’s first astronaut is expected to set foot on the moon before 2015. Taking advantage of the damage that the financial crisis has dealt the American laissez-faire system, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is also gunning for a novel international financial architecture, or one that is not dominated by the United States. This paper will look at China’s much-enhanced projection of hard and soft power, particularly ways in which Beijing is waging quasi-superpower diplomacy to bolster the country’s pre-eminence in the new world order. The diplomatic and geopolitical implications of China’s precipitous rise will be thoroughly appraised.

Russian authorities are extremely divided about the right position to take as Moscow increasingly concerns itself with the Afghan question. They have continually criticized NATO’s decisions though, at the same time, many Russian politicians recognize that the coalition’s failure to stabilize Afghanistan would place Russia in great danger. To carry out its re-entry policies, Moscow is seeking to revitalize Russophile lobbies in Afghanistan. Russian economic stake in Afghanistan is also showing signs of growth. Regardless of the success of this strategy, it seems to have opened a new page in the history of Russian-Afghan relations, ending Moscow’s twenty-year absence from the Afghan scene.

The global natural gas industry is undergoing a historical shift away from overland pipeline deliveries of gas and gradually towards Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), shipped by seaborne tankers designed to supply distant markets which cannot otherwise be supplied by traditional pipelines. Russia, the world’s largest producer of gas, has stated that it is determined to become a leading player in the emerging LNG business. With the opening of the Russian LNG terminal on Sakhalin Island in 2009, Russia joined the global LNG market. The country’s leadership has stated that LNG will play a significant role in its changing energy strategy and has followed these claims with a number of important steps meant to position its gas monopoly, Gazprom, to become a major player on the world LNG market. Kremlin strategists hope that over time LNG will become just as powerful a tool in its foreign policy goals as pipeline-supplied gas is today. The facts, however, point in the opposite direction and Moscow could well be in for a surprise as their strategic aspirations may exceed their capacity to meet those expectations.

The Changing Face of Islamist Militancy in North Africa contains the proceedings of a panel from Jamestown's December 2008 conference entitled "The Expanding Geography of Militant Jihad."

The report includes presentations by Theresa Whelan (Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, Office of the Secretary of Defense); Andrew Black (Managing Director, Black Watch Global); Andrew McGregor (Editor, Terrorism Monitor, Jamestown Foundation); and Camille Tawil (Al-Hayat newspaper).

In Gazprom's European Web, Jamestown analyst Roman Kupchinsky traces the unspoken connections between Russian gas giant Gazprom and various European companies.

The Battle for Yemen is a rare and comprehensive volume that tackles the facets of instability that currently plague Yemen. It offers a wealth of analysis and keen observations from the experts of The Jamestown Foundation, who have monitored the developments within Yemen since 2004. Combining indigenous sources with original analytical insights, this book represents a vital research tool for those seeking a detailed account of Yemen's struggle for stability, the various movements that shape the security environment, and the radical personalities that strive to undermine the Saleh government and its partnership with the United States.

China in Africa examines the multifaceted effects of China's robust engagement with the African continent, both its many risks and opportunities. It provides critical and relevant information for understanding the strategic drivers, trends and the potential impact of China in Africa. The book covers Chinese soft and hard power, energy and arms relations, and China s relations with individual African countries: Angola, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Ultimately, this volume serves to assist in improving U.S. policymakers understanding of China s role in Africa and ensure that appropriate measures are taken to secure American interests in the region.

Pakistan’s Troubled Frontier is a gripping snapshot of the militants and movements threatening a region plunging into turmoil. This work represents an effort to examine the array of security issues threatening Pakistan’s volatile northwest frontier and should become an important reference for policy makers seeking greater insight into the region. Packed with informative analysis written by leading experts, Pakistan’s Troubled Frontier offers the kind of expertise not typically available to the public and Western media. Arriving at a time when the United States is dramatically increasing its presence in Afghanistan and conducting a careful review of its policies and goals in the border region, Pakistan’s Troubled Frontier is a substantial contribution to understanding the long-term future of U.S. security interests in South and Central Asia.

The Reform of Russia's Conventional Armed Forces: Problems, Challenges and Policy Implications, traces the complex origins of the reform, its numerous twists and assesses the key challenges it faces. Roger N. McDermott examines the obstacles confronting the Russian defense planners as they seek to transform the military education system, encourage high standards among the officer corps combined with forming suitable non-commissioned officers and overcoming the weaknesses of the domestic defense industry to facilitate modernization. Moscow's long-term political and economic support will prove necessary, while pursuit of reform is likely to result in a lengthy period of transition for the armed forces. Whether, or to what extent, such challenges are sufficiently well resolved by Moscow, will determine the Russian state's future capability to project military power, preserve the country's territorial integrity or validate its claims to "great power" status. 

In Volatile Borderland: Russia and the North Caucasus, The Jamestown Foundation presents a collection of essays by leading experts on the North Caucasus that allows for an in-depth look at the key developments, movements and personalities that have shaped the region since the start of the second Russo-Chechen war in 1999. This volume represents a rare and comprehensive collection of articles by some of the premier experts on the region who participated in two major conferences on the North Caucasus organized by The Jamestown Foundation. Volatile Borderland is designed to be an important reference tool for western policymakers who seek a better understanding of the key issues driving conflict and instability in Russia’s restless frontier.

Violence in Iraq has declined since its civil war of 2005-2007 due to the implementation of the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy, Shi'a militia ceasefires, and the emergence of Iraq's Awakening Movement. But as the U.S. military draws down its forces, Iraq remains a fragile, un-reconciled state, riddled with sectarian tensions and new political rivalries that may negatively affect its future security and stability. Though less resourceful now, al-Qaeda in Iraq, Ba'athist elements, and Sufi insurgents alike have learned to adapt to the new challenges they face, while gradually evolving into a movement dominated by indigenous fighters. More determined on targeting and undermining the Iraq government, this new generation of militants is bound to pose a considerable threat to Iraq's security for the foreseeable future.