Violence in Iraq has declined since its civil war of 2005-2007 due to the implementation of the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy, Shi'a militia ceasefires, and the emergence of Iraq's Awakening Movement. But as the U.S. military draws down its forces, Iraq remains a fragile, un-reconciled state, riddled with sectarian tensions and new political rivalries that may negatively affect its future security and stability. Though less resourceful now, al-Qaeda in Iraq, Ba'athist elements, and Sufi insurgents alike have learned to adapt to the new challenges they face, while gradually evolving into a movement dominated by indigenous fighters. More determined on targeting and undermining the Iraq government, this new generation of militants is bound to pose a considerable threat to Iraq's security for the foreseeable future.

While the Arab Middle East is political Islam’s ideological and historical core, South Asia and Southeast Asia, concentrated in the Indonesian archipelago, make up the modern demographic core of the Muslim world. Advocates of political jihadism have been adept at exploiting pre-existing territorial and ethnic grievances, both perceived and real, in these highly complex and fragmented states. Terror networks in these tumultuous mega-regions have also been cleverly calculating in their agitation of simmering disputes that have arisen from the communal tensions of religious difference that have existed in varying degrees since the region’s violent Cold War-era decolonization.

To better understand the social fabric of terrorism in South and Southeast Asia, The Jamestown Foundation held a panel entitled, “Terrorist Trends in South Asia,” as a component of its annual terrorism conference on December 9th, 2009 at the National Press Club, "The Changing Strategic Gravity of al-Qaeda". The contents of that panel, including full transcripts, question and answer sessions, executive summaries, slide presentations, panelist biographies and the full transcript of keynote speaker Bruce Riedel's presentation. 

The tribal areas of Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) fully deserve President Barack Obama’s description as “the most dangerous place in the world”.  This remote and inhospitable region is only nominally under Pakistan's administration and its Pashtun tribesmen have a long history of opposing outside rule on their homeland. The Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) have today become a haven for the most vicious and desperate elements of the Islamist insurgency. This includes Osama bin Laden, who is widely believed to be taking shelter in Waziristan under the protection of the Pashtun tribesmen, whose code of honor obliges them to protect anyone seeking refuge. This paper brings to light the experience of the British, who fought a desperate 100-year war to gain supremacy in the strategic tribal areas. Britain on the North-West Frontier: Strategy, Tactics and Lessons describes the Pashtun tribesmen and examines the military tactics used to deal with the insurgents, from “butcher and bolt” destruction of their villages to the later deployment of air power and even straightforward bribery, none of which were met with lasting success. In the end, the fatal flaw may well have been in treating this as a strictly military problem instead of an economic one. Pakistan, which is now engaged in a fierce battle to  clean out the Islamist insurgents from Waziristan, may be forced to learn the same lesson.  

Tensions are on the rise in the South China Sea. Longstanding sovereignty disputes over the profusion of atolls, shoals and reefs that dot the 1.2 million square miles of sea, allied to extensive overlapping claims to maritime space, have been a source of serious interstate contention over the years, especially during the 1990s. A brief easing of tensions occurred in the first half of this decade due in part to China’s more accommodating and flexible attitude, which was part of a diplomatic “charm offensive” toward Southeast Asia intended to assuage regional anxieties over the country’s growing economic, political and military clout. Over the past several years, however, China has reverted to a more assertive posture in consolidating its jurisdictional claims, expanding its military reach and seeking to undermine the claims of other states through coercive diplomacy.

The ongoing struggle for control of Somalia is one of the world’s most complicated. With the country already effectively split into three parts, it may be too late to speak of a Somali nation. While the popular conception of this conflict pits al-Qaeda associated Islamists against a presumably Western-friendly Transitional Federal Government (TFG) that has the support of major Western powers and the United Nations, the reality is far more complex. Somalia is beset by separatist forces, clan rivalries, ideological differences and religious disputes, all of which threaten to tear the last threads from the fabric of Somali unity. Though Islamists now lead both the government and the armed opposition, this has brought resolution of the conflict no closer.  Self-declared autonomous or independent regions like Puntland and Somaliland are unlikely to ever submit to the authority of Mogadishu and there are several regions ready to follow their example. With Sufis fighting Salafists on the battlefields of central and southern Somalia, Islam appears to have passed from one of the main forces behind Somali unity to one of its most divisive elements. The Who’s Who of the Somali Insurgency is an essential guide to the disparate forces and individuals seeking to split, conquer or unify this long troubled nation in the strategic Horn of Africa region.

The year 2009 will go down in history as a watershed for the epochal expansion of China’s global influence. With its economy tipped to grow at 8 percent despite the world financial crisis, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is widely regarded as a prime locomotive for economic recovery worldwide. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is building nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers, and the country’s first astronaut is expected to set foot on the moon before 2015. Taking advantage of the damage that the financial crisis has dealt the American laissez-faire system, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is also gunning for a novel international financial architecture, or one that is not dominated by the United States. This paper will look at China’s much-enhanced projection of hard and soft power, particularly ways in which Beijing is waging quasi-superpower diplomacy to bolster the country’s pre-eminence in the new world order. The diplomatic and geopolitical implications of China’s precipitous rise will be thoroughly appraised.

Russian authorities are extremely divided about the right position to take as Moscow increasingly concerns itself with the Afghan question. They have continually criticized NATO’s decisions though, at the same time, many Russian politicians recognize that the coalition’s failure to stabilize Afghanistan would place Russia in great danger. To carry out its re-entry policies, Moscow is seeking to revitalize Russophile lobbies in Afghanistan. Russian economic stake in Afghanistan is also showing signs of growth. Regardless of the success of this strategy, it seems to have opened a new page in the history of Russian-Afghan relations, ending Moscow’s twenty-year absence from the Afghan scene.

The global natural gas industry is undergoing a historical shift away from overland pipeline deliveries of gas and gradually towards Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), shipped by seaborne tankers designed to supply distant markets which cannot otherwise be supplied by traditional pipelines. Russia, the world’s largest producer of gas, has stated that it is determined to become a leading player in the emerging LNG business. With the opening of the Russian LNG terminal on Sakhalin Island in 2009, Russia joined the global LNG market. The country’s leadership has stated that LNG will play a significant role in its changing energy strategy and has followed these claims with a number of important steps meant to position its gas monopoly, Gazprom, to become a major player on the world LNG market. Kremlin strategists hope that over time LNG will become just as powerful a tool in its foreign policy goals as pipeline-supplied gas is today. The facts, however, point in the opposite direction and Moscow could well be in for a surprise as their strategic aspirations may exceed their capacity to meet those expectations.

Pakistan’s Troubled Frontier is a gripping snapshot of the militants and movements threatening a region plunging into turmoil. This work represents an effort to examine the array of security issues threatening Pakistan’s volatile northwest frontier and should become an important reference for policy makers seeking greater insight into the region. Packed with informative analysis written by leading experts, Pakistan’s Troubled Frontier offers the kind of expertise not typically available to the public and Western media. Arriving at a time when the United States is dramatically increasing its presence in Afghanistan and conducting a careful review of its policies and goals in the border region, Pakistan’s Troubled Frontier is a substantial contribution to understanding the long-term future of U.S. security interests in South and Central Asia.

China in Africa examines the multifaceted effects of China's robust engagement with the African continent, both its many risks and opportunities. It provides critical and relevant information for understanding the strategic drivers, trends and the potential impact of China in Africa. The book covers Chinese soft and hard power, energy and arms relations, and China s relations with individual African countries: Angola, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Ultimately, this volume serves to assist in improving U.S. policymakers understanding of China s role in Africa and ensure that appropriate measures are taken to secure American interests in the region.

The Changing Face of Islamist Militancy in North Africa contains the proceedings of a panel from Jamestown's December 2008 conference entitled "The Expanding Geography of Militant Jihad."

The report includes presentations by Theresa Whelan (Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, Office of the Secretary of Defense); Andrew Black (Managing Director, Black Watch Global); Andrew McGregor (Editor, Terrorism Monitor, Jamestown Foundation); and Camille Tawil (Al-Hayat newspaper).

In Gazprom's European Web, Jamestown analyst Roman Kupchinsky traces the unspoken connections between Russian gas giant Gazprom and various European companies.