The Crimea: Europe's Next Flashpoint?
This occasional report by Taras Kuzio examines Russian-Ukraine relations and the future of the Crimea as well as the port of Sevastopol, a key strategic naval base for the Russian navy.
Russian LNG - The Future Geopolitical Battleground
This occasional report addresses the historical shift in the global natural gas industry away from overland pipeline deliveries and toward liquefied natural gas, as well as Russia's move toward becoming a leader in the emerging LNG market.
FACT, FANTASY, AND FARCE AS MORE ARE DETAINED IN ERGENEKON PROBE
On September 18 the Turkish security forces detained 19 more people as part of the continuing judicial investigations into a shadowy ultranationalist group known to the Turkish media as Ergenekon (see Terrorism Focus, January 29).
The Ergenekon investigation was launched following the discovery of a crate of grenades in a shantytown on the outskirts of Istanbul on June 12, 2007. Over the past 15 months, more than 100 people have been detained on suspicion of links to the group. They include Turkish ultranationalists, former members of the security forces, doctors, lawyers, journalists, and academics (see EDM, July 29).
There is no doubt that Ergenekon is a product of what Turks refer to as the derin devlet or “deep state,” a vast network of individuals and organizations with its roots in the Turkish military which conducted intelligence gathering and covert operations against perceived enemies of the Turkish state. During its heyday in the 1990s, groups and individuals acting, often with considerable autonomy, under the umbrella of the deep state were responsible for numerous deaths and human rights abuses, particularly in the predominantly Kurdish southeast of Turkey.
The Ergenekon investigation has been a gift to supporters of the ruling, moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP). The AKP is aware that the rigorously secular Turkish military remains the main obstacle to its hopes of softening the prevailing, often draconian, interpretation of secularism in Turkey. Many Turkish Islamists have also long been in denial about the nature of violence conducted in the name of their religion, particularly inside Turkey; and frequently create impossibly elaborate conspiracy theories in an attempt to shift the ultimate responsibility for acts of Islamist terrorism in Turkey onto “provocations” by unspecified dark forces seeking to destabilize the country (Zaman, April 22, 2007).
Unfortunately, the main motivation of those conducting the Ergenekon investigation appears to be to implicate as many hard-line secularists as possible rather than reveal the truth behind the organization. Worryingly, each wave of arrests of suspects in the Ergenekon investigation has occurred at a time when the domestic news agenda has been dominated by something damaging or embarrassing to the AKP. The detentions of September 18 coincided with conviction for fraud of the directors of a German-based Islamic charity who had close ties to leading members of the AKP (see EDM, September 11).
The 2,455 pages of the initial Ergenekon indictment, which was formally accepted by Istanbul’s 13th Serious Crimes Court on July 25 (see EDM, July 29), contains a bewildering mixture of fact, fantasy, rumor, speculation, and misinformation, much of it self-contradictory. Alarmingly, in their claims to have uncovered the heart of the deep state, the Ergenekon investigators appear to have attempted to impose a conspiracy theorist’s framework of a single centrally-controlled organization on what was always more of a diffuse nexus of like-minded groups and individuals; some of whom even fought turf wars with each other. On September 21 the pro-AKP Sabah daily newspaper, which is owned by a close friend of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, published what it claimed was an organizational chart of the Ergenekon leadership drawn up by the public prosecutors. Significantly, the neat diagram had almost as many blanks as it did names (Sabah, September 21).
Both the Ergenekon investigators and the pro-AKP media have also refused to understand that most of the deep state disintegrated in the late 1990s. With the PKK in military retreat, many of the groups and individuals recruited to combat the organization in return for immunity from prosecution shifted their attention to criminal activities, such as protection rackets and narcotics smuggling.
In reality, Ergenekon was a relatively new organization. Less than a decade old, it was patched together by a handful of former deep-state operatives in order to prevent what they regarded as the potential erosion of Turkey’s sovereignty as a result of growing ties with the EU and to combat the threat they believed the AKP posed to secularism.
There is no doubt that some of the members of Ergenekon were prepared to use violence, although it was very limited in scope. Nevertheless, the pro-AKP media continue to claim that virtually every act of terrorism in Turkey attributed to Islamist militants over the last 20 years was actually a “false flag” operation by Ergenekon, including those that occurred before the organization was even formed. On September 22 the pro-AKP Today’s Zaman, which is now Turkey’s biggest selling English language daily, proudly proclaimed that “new evidence in the investigation indicates that Ergenekon leaders used terrorist organizations in Turkey from all backgrounds” (Today’s Zaman, September 22).
More absurdly, the newspaper went on to claim: “The evidence suggests that the group had links with the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the extreme-left Revolutionary People's Liberation Party/Front (DHKP/C), the Islamist organization Hizbullah, the ultranationalist Turkish Revenge Brigades (TİT), the Turkish Workers' and Peasants' Liberation Army (TİKKO), the Marxist-Leninist Communist Party (MLKP) and the Hizb ut-Tahrir (Party of Liberation), an extreme group wanting to reinstate the Islamic Caliphate” (Today’s Zaman, September 22).
Not surprisingly, the claims been fiercely denied by the organizations themselves (for example, see DHKP-C Press Release No, 373 of May 18, www.dhkc.org). Indeed, such organizations have traditionally been targeted by various elements in the deep state for intelligence gathering and, on occasion, assassination of the organizations’ members.
The latest round of detentions on September 18 suggests that the Ergenekon investigation may now be moving from the fantasies of conspiracy theorists into farce. Those detained on September 18 included Nurseli Idiz, one of Turkey’s leading actresses, and a transsexual showbiz manager and function organizer called Seyhan Soylu (NTV, CNNTurk, Anadolu Ajansi, September 18). After being held for three days, Idiz and Soylu were released on September 21 without being charged (Milliyet, Radikal, September 22).
No one seriously believes that Idiz and Soylu were actively involved in what the court indictment describes as a “terrorist organization.” Their main offence appears to have been that both were outspoken opponents of the AKP.
Publications
Eurasia Daily Monitor
Global Terrorism Analysis
China Brief
North Caucasus Analysis
Militant Leadership Monitor
Donate To Jamestown
New From Jamestown
Breaking News:
The South Caucasus 2021: Oil, Democracy and Geopolitics
May 4, 2012 04:32 PM
A retrospective of the 20 years of independence experienced by the countries of the South Caucasus clearly demonstrates the difficulties involved in building a state and restoring an economy after more than 70 years of Soviet rule. Each one of the three post-Soviet republics of the South Caucasus – Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia – has chosen its own path of development; each is developing its own particular model of political, economic and socio-cultural transformation. At the same time, the se...
Kindle Books
December 20, 2011 11:10 AM
You've asked and we've delivered.
Books and Reports which have been published by The Jamestown Foundation will now be available for a substantial discount on Kindle.
Books can be purchased for $9.95 and Occasional Reports can be purchased for $3.95-$7.95 in the United States.
International purchases will be priced based on the exchange rate at the equivalent of the USD price.
Current titles available for purchase on Kindle include:
A History of Islamist Militancy in Pakistani Punjab...
The Reform Of Russia's Conventional Armed Forces: Problems, Challenges, & Policy Implications
October 6, 2011 02:28 PM
The Reform of Russia's Conventional Armed Forces: Problems, Challenges and Policy Implications, traces the complex origins of the reform, its numerous twists and assesses the key challenges it faces. Roger N. McDermott examines the obstacles confronting the Russian defense planners as they seek to transform the military education system, encourage high standards among the officer corps combined with forming suitable non-commissioned officers and overcoming the weaknesses of the domestic defense ...
Volatile Borderland: Russia and the North Caucasus
May 20, 2011 09:54 AM
In Volatile Borderland: Russia and the North Caucasus, The Jamestown Foundation presents a collection of essays by leading experts on the North Caucasus that allows for an in-depth look at the key developments, movements and personalities that have shaped the region since the start of the second Russo-Chechen war in 1999. This volume represents a rare and comprehensive collection of articles by some of the premier experts on the region who participated in two major conferences on the North Cauca...
The Battle for Yemen: Al-Qaeda and the Struggle for Stability
April 21, 2010 10:15 AM
The Battle for Yemen is a rare and comprehensive volume that tackles the facets of instability that currently plague Yemen. It offers a wealth of analysis and keen observations from the experts of The Jamestown Foundation, who have monitored the developments within Yemen since 2004. Combining indigenous sources with original analytical insights, this book represents a vital research tool for those seeking a detailed account of Yemen's struggle for stability, the various movements that shape the ...
The Sultan’s Raiders: The Military Role of the Crimean Tatars in the Ottoman Empire
May 18, 2013From the fourteenth to the seventeenth centuries, the Christian nations of Europe and the Shiites of Persia were forced to defend their lands against the inroads of an ever expanding Ottoman Empire, an empire whose awesome war...
Militant Leadership Monitor - April Issue
April 29, 2013This issue of Militant Leadership Monitor includes profiles of Saudi Arabia's Ahmed Abdullah Saleh al-Khazmari al-Zahrani, AQIM's Jemal Oukacha, Libya's Isa Amd al-Majid, the Niger Delta's al-Haji Mujahid Dokubo-Asari (Part Two),...
Militant Leadership Monitor - March Issue
March 29, 2013This issue of Militant Leadership Monitor includes in-depth analyses of Ansaru's Khalid al-Barnawi, the Niger Delta's al-Haji Mujahid Dokubu-Asari, succession scenarios after Talabani, and the second part of a who's who in...
Militant Leadership Monitor - February Issue
February 28, 2013This issue of Militant Leadership Monitor includes in-depth portraits of Tripoli's Hussam Abdullah Sabbagh, Hamas Political Bureau Chief Khalid Meshaal, Egypt's Muhammad al-Zawahiri and the Toulouse gunman Muhammad...
Pakistan's Tribal Militants: A Militant Leadership Monitor Special Report
February 27, 2013In this Special Report “Pakistan’s Tribal Militants: Profiles from the Pashtun and Baloch Insurgencies,” we examine some of Pakistan’s tribal militant leaders in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the North West...
Militant Leadership Monitor - January Issue
January 30, 2013This issue of MLM features profiles of Alghabass ag Intallag, Syrian Major General Abdulaziz al-Shalal, Who’s Who in the Jordanian Opposition, Mullah Nazir the "good Taliban", and Female PKK leader Sakine...
Straddling Russia and Europe: A Compendium of Recent Jamestown Analysis on Belarus
January 30, 2013This report features a collection of recent analysis written in Jamestown's flagship publication, Eurasia Daily Monitor. The included articles were written by Jamestown's foremost experts on Belarus and cover a wide array of...
Mayhem in Mali: A Militant Leadership Monitor Report
December 29, 2012In this Quarterly Special Report (QSR) on Mayhem in Mali, we focus on the various Islamist fighters who have taken over northern Mali. The QSR includes profiles of important personalities in the Sahel region such as Abou Zeid, a...
Northern Nigeria's Boko Haram The Prize in al-Qaeda's Africa Strategy
November 26, 2012The Occasional Paper, entitled “Northern Nigeria’s Boko Haram: The Prize in Al-Qaeda’s Africa Strategy” is now available for purchase on our website. This Occasional Paper examines the evolution of al-Qaeda’s Africa strategy...
Elections Issue: Militants in Libyan Politics: A Militant Leadership Monitor Special Report
August 16, 2012In this Special Report on the Libya Elections we examine the entrance of militant leaders into the political scene as the country recovers from several decades of Gaddafi's rule. This 2012 Quarterly Special Report features five...
















