The Crimea: Europe's Next Flashpoint?
This occasional report by Taras Kuzio examines Russian-Ukraine relations and the future of the Crimea as well as the port of Sevastopol, a key strategic naval base for the Russian navy.
Russian LNG - The Future Geopolitical Battleground
This occasional report addresses the historical shift in the global natural gas industry away from overland pipeline deliveries and toward liquefied natural gas, as well as Russia's move toward becoming a leader in the emerging LNG market.
Seven Years After Attack on Nalchik, Trial of Alleged Perpetrators Grinds On
On October 13, Kabardino-Balkaria marked the seventh anniversary of the attack on Nalchik, the republic’s capital. Groups of militants staged simultaneous attacks on the headquarters of the police, Federal Security Service (FSB) and several other agencies in the republic. In the resulting violence, 35 police officers and members of the military, 14 civilians and 92 militants were killed. In addition, 129 servicemen and 66 civilians were injured.
The trial of the suspected perpetrators of the attack is one of the largest court processes to have taken place in the Russian Federation. Yet, despite its scale and importance, the Russian media practically ignores it. According to many experts, the continuing court process has adversely affected the situation in the republic. “There is a public request to end the trial soon,” the director of Kabardino-Balkarian Human Rights Center, Valery Khatazhukov, told Kavkazsky Uzel (Caucasian Knot). “People get the impression that since the trial has been on for so long, something is wrong with it,” said Marat Khokonov, a local university professor. According to Khatazhukov, there are several reasons why the court process is slow: the Russian government abolished jury trials for terrorism suspects, all separate cases connected to the 2005 Nalchik raid were merged together while some witnesses started to withdraw their testimony, alleging they had been tortured or otherwise forced to provide evidence against the suspects (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru, October 12).
According to the official account of events, on the night of October 14, 2005, at least 250 armed militants attacked various offices in Nalchik. Officials claim that the militants’ raid was staged by Aslan Maskhadov (who died on March 5, 2005), Shamil Basaev, Ilyas Gorchkhanov, Anzor Astemirov and foreign insurgent leaders—Khattab, Abu Al-Valid and Abu-Dzeit. The attackers reportedly planned to overthrow the government of Kabardino-Balkaria and create an Islamic state in the North Caucasus. Prosecutors have stated they would ask the court to pass life sentences on the people who are on trial. The suspects and their lawyers have not admitted guilt. Rights activists adopted a special appeal in regard to the ongoing trial in Nalchik. “One to one and a half years before these events [October 2005 attack on Nalchik], religious forces that were in favor of armed jihad comprised small groups and had no influence whatsoever among the Muslims,” the appeal read. “However, unlawful and unjustified reprisals against Muslims, their physical persecution, torture, unlawful arrest, searches and closures of mosques, promoted rapid radicalization of republican Muslims and strengthening of the jihadi forces among them” (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru, October 12). Days before the seventh anniversary of the attack on Nalchik, the website of the Kabardino-Balkarian Human Rights Center, Zapravakbr.ru, was brought down by unknown attackers (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru, October 9).
In fact, Kabardino-Balkaria was among the “quiet” republics of the North Caucasus not only up to the October 2005 events in Nalchik, but also for a period of time afterwards. The security situation gradually deteriorated in the republic and instability climaxed in 2010–2011 after the security services killed the moderate leader of the militant underground, Anzor Astemirov, in March 2010. This previously stable republic quickly turned into one of the deadliest in the North Caucasus, and the security situation there has remained precarious ever since. Apparently, the authorities’ plan to eliminate the underground militancy in the republic by heavily pressuring the Muslim community has backfired. Such well-known Islamic leaders as Astemirov and Musa Mukozhev in fact were legal Islamic activists for a long time, but the government eventually became dissatisfied with their activities as they and their followers were not under direct government control. So the state’s desire to have total control over all social forces in Kabardino-Balkaria at the very least contributed to the republic’s destabilization, even if it was not the primary cause.
The scale of the process in Nalchik is impressive. There are 57 people currently on trial, 1,300 witnesses and 191 victims. The oldest person among the suspects is 40 years old and the youngest one is 24. Twenty-nine lawyers and six prosecutors are involved in the court process. The trial has accumulated 1,300 volumes, with the indictment alone constituting 530 volumes (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru, October 12).
The Russian security services have scored a couple of milestone victories since the 2005 attack, such as wiping out almost the entire leadership of the republican insurgency in April 2011. However, the situation in Kabardino-Balkaria is far from stable. According to Kavkazsky Uzel, in the period of July to September, 25 persons died as a result of the insurgency in the republic and 10 others were wounded. Twenty-one of those killed were suspected rebels, while three law enforcement agents and a civilian were also killed (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru, October 5). On October 12, a counter-terrorism operation regime was introduced in Nalchik after two suspected militants barricaded themselves in the basement of an apartment block in the center of the city. Two rebels and one police officer were killed in the ensuing shootout. The rebels were identified as 28-year-old Rustam Tokhov and 29-year-old Asadulagi Mir-Zurab. According to police reports, the two slain insurgents had gone underground in September (http://regnum.ru, October 12).
The attack of October 2005 became the landmark event for Kabardino-Balkaria. Afterwards, the fissure between Moscow and the local population clearly manifested itself. It would be in Moscow’s interest to lay this incident to rest as quickly as possible. However, the fact that the trial is dragging on for so long means that the divergence between Moscow and a large segment of Kabardino-Balkarian society is so wide that neither convictions nor acquittals will restore a positive attitude toward Russia in the republic. Thus the only remaining option for Moscow is to delay the end of the trial, in order to make as many people as possible forget about it, and then give those on trial as harsh a sentence as possible.
Publications
Eurasia Daily Monitor
Global Terrorism Analysis
China Brief
North Caucasus Analysis
Militant Leadership Monitor
Donate To Jamestown
New From Jamestown
Breaking News:
The South Caucasus 2021: Oil, Democracy and Geopolitics
May 4, 2012 04:32 PM
A retrospective of the 20 years of independence experienced by the countries of the South Caucasus clearly demonstrates the difficulties involved in building a state and restoring an economy after more than 70 years of Soviet rule. Each one of the three post-Soviet republics of the South Caucasus – Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia – has chosen its own path of development; each is developing its own particular model of political, economic and socio-cultural transformation. At the same time, the se...
Kindle Books
December 20, 2011 11:10 AM
You've asked and we've delivered.
Books and Reports which have been published by The Jamestown Foundation will now be available for a substantial discount on Kindle.
Books can be purchased for $9.95 and Occasional Reports can be purchased for $3.95-$7.95 in the United States.
International purchases will be priced based on the exchange rate at the equivalent of the USD price.
Current titles available for purchase on Kindle include:
A History of Islamist Militancy in Pakistani Punjab...
The Reform Of Russia's Conventional Armed Forces: Problems, Challenges, & Policy Implications
October 6, 2011 02:28 PM
The Reform of Russia's Conventional Armed Forces: Problems, Challenges and Policy Implications, traces the complex origins of the reform, its numerous twists and assesses the key challenges it faces. Roger N. McDermott examines the obstacles confronting the Russian defense planners as they seek to transform the military education system, encourage high standards among the officer corps combined with forming suitable non-commissioned officers and overcoming the weaknesses of the domestic defense ...
Volatile Borderland: Russia and the North Caucasus
May 20, 2011 09:54 AM
In Volatile Borderland: Russia and the North Caucasus, The Jamestown Foundation presents a collection of essays by leading experts on the North Caucasus that allows for an in-depth look at the key developments, movements and personalities that have shaped the region since the start of the second Russo-Chechen war in 1999. This volume represents a rare and comprehensive collection of articles by some of the premier experts on the region who participated in two major conferences on the North Cauca...
The Battle for Yemen: Al-Qaeda and the Struggle for Stability
April 21, 2010 10:15 AM
The Battle for Yemen is a rare and comprehensive volume that tackles the facets of instability that currently plague Yemen. It offers a wealth of analysis and keen observations from the experts of The Jamestown Foundation, who have monitored the developments within Yemen since 2004. Combining indigenous sources with original analytical insights, this book represents a vital research tool for those seeking a detailed account of Yemen's struggle for stability, the various movements that shape the ...
The Sultan’s Raiders: The Military Role of the Crimean Tatars in the Ottoman Empire
May 18, 2013From the fourteenth to the seventeenth centuries, the Christian nations of Europe and the Shiites of Persia were forced to defend their lands against the inroads of an ever expanding Ottoman Empire, an empire whose awesome war...
Militant Leadership Monitor - April Issue
April 29, 2013This issue of Militant Leadership Monitor includes profiles of Saudi Arabia's Ahmed Abdullah Saleh al-Khazmari al-Zahrani, AQIM's Jemal Oukacha, Libya's Isa Amd al-Majid, the Niger Delta's al-Haji Mujahid Dokubo-Asari (Part Two),...
Militant Leadership Monitor - March Issue
March 29, 2013This issue of Militant Leadership Monitor includes in-depth analyses of Ansaru's Khalid al-Barnawi, the Niger Delta's al-Haji Mujahid Dokubu-Asari, succession scenarios after Talabani, and the second part of a who's who in...
Militant Leadership Monitor - February Issue
February 28, 2013This issue of Militant Leadership Monitor includes in-depth portraits of Tripoli's Hussam Abdullah Sabbagh, Hamas Political Bureau Chief Khalid Meshaal, Egypt's Muhammad al-Zawahiri and the Toulouse gunman Muhammad...
Pakistan's Tribal Militants: A Militant Leadership Monitor Special Report
February 27, 2013In this Special Report “Pakistan’s Tribal Militants: Profiles from the Pashtun and Baloch Insurgencies,” we examine some of Pakistan’s tribal militant leaders in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the North West...
Militant Leadership Monitor - January Issue
January 30, 2013This issue of MLM features profiles of Alghabass ag Intallag, Syrian Major General Abdulaziz al-Shalal, Who’s Who in the Jordanian Opposition, Mullah Nazir the "good Taliban", and Female PKK leader Sakine...
Straddling Russia and Europe: A Compendium of Recent Jamestown Analysis on Belarus
January 30, 2013This report features a collection of recent analysis written in Jamestown's flagship publication, Eurasia Daily Monitor. The included articles were written by Jamestown's foremost experts on Belarus and cover a wide array of...
Mayhem in Mali: A Militant Leadership Monitor Report
December 29, 2012In this Quarterly Special Report (QSR) on Mayhem in Mali, we focus on the various Islamist fighters who have taken over northern Mali. The QSR includes profiles of important personalities in the Sahel region such as Abou Zeid, a...
Northern Nigeria's Boko Haram The Prize in al-Qaeda's Africa Strategy
November 26, 2012The Occasional Paper, entitled “Northern Nigeria’s Boko Haram: The Prize in Al-Qaeda’s Africa Strategy” is now available for purchase on our website. This Occasional Paper examines the evolution of al-Qaeda’s Africa strategy...
Elections Issue: Militants in Libyan Politics: A Militant Leadership Monitor Special Report
August 16, 2012In this Special Report on the Libya Elections we examine the entrance of militant leaders into the political scene as the country recovers from several decades of Gaddafi's rule. This 2012 Quarterly Special Report features five...

















