Thursday, December 8, 2011
8:30 A.M. - 5:00 P.M.
National Press Club
529 14th St. NW, 13th Floor
8:00 A.M. – 8:30 A.M.
8:30 A.M. – 8:40 A.M.
Glen E. Howard
President, The Jamestown Foundation
8:40 A.M. – 9:20 A.M.
Introduction: Michelle Van Cleave
Former National Counterintelligence Executive and
Board Member, The Jamestown Foundation
Gen. Michael Hayden
Former Director, Central Intelligence Agency and
Board Member, The Jamestown Foundation
Q & A
Al-Qaeda After Bin Laden
9:20 A.M. – 10:30 A.M.
Director, Center for Peace and Security Studies and the Security Studies Program,
Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University and
Board Member, The Jamestown Foundation
“The Untold Story of America’s Secret Campaign Against Al Qaeda”
Senior Writer, The New York Times
Correspondent, Pentagon and National Security, The New York Times
Q & A
10:30 A.M. – 10:45 A.M.
Al-Qaeda Strategies Post-Bin Laden
10:45 A.M. – 12:00 P.M.
“Why Western Jihadis Fight Abroad: Muslim Foreign Fighter Recruitment in the West”
Director of Terrorism Research, Norwegian Defense Research Establishment (FFI)
Murad Batal al-Shishani
“The Impact of the Arab Spring on al-Qaeda and Its Response”
Analyst, The Jamestown Foundation
Michael S. Ryan
“Zawahiri’s Inheritance: What AQ Did Wrong and What the US Could Do Wrong Next”
Senior Fellow, The Jamestown Foundation
Q & A
12:00 P.M. – 12:45 P.M.
12:45 P.M. – 1:30 P.M.
Coordinator for Counterterrorism, U.S. Department of State
Q & A
1:30 P.M. – 1:45 P.M.
Impact on the Af-Pak Frontier
1:45 P.M. – 3:00 P.M.
Moderator/Discussant: Daniel Green
“The Future of the Pashtun Heartland”
Soref Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy and
Author, The Valley’s Edge: A Year with the Pashtuns in the Heartland of the Taliban
David C. Isby
“Impact on Afghanistan”
Author, Afghanistan: Graveyard of Empires
Syed Adnan Ali Shah Bukhari
“Impact on the Tribal Areas in North West Pakistan”
Associate Research Fellow and Team Leader, South and Central Asia Desk, International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), RSIS
“The Future of Militant Groups inside Pakistan”
Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Q & A
3:00 P.M. – 3:15 P.M.
New Developments & Strategies in AQ Associated Movements:
From North Africa to India
3:15 P.M. – 4:30 P.M.
Moderator: Peter Chalk
Senior Political Scientist, RAND
“After Pharaoh: The Future of Islamist Militancy in Egypt”
Senior Editor, Global Terrorism Analysis, The Jamestown Foundation
“The Impact of the Libyan Revolution on North African Militant Movements”
Instructor, American Military University
Rafid Fadhil Mohammed Ali
“Future of Militant Activities in Iraq”
“AQ Associated Strategies Toward India”
Executive Director (Research), Society for the Study of Peace and Conflict
Q & A
Rafid Fadhil Mohammed Ali
Rafid Fadhil Mohammed Ali is an Iraqi journalist, writer and researcher. He is currently a senior broadcast journalist at the BBC World Service in London. From 2003 to 2007, he covered the Iraq war and the events that followed. Rafid worked for different Iraqi, pan-Arab and foreign media organizations as a TV reporter. Rafid is an expert in Iraqi politics and militant groups in the Middle East. He writes frequently in Arabic and English for publications such as the Jamestown Foundation’s Terrorism Monitor and Terrorism Focus, and the daily Arabic newspaper, al-Hayat.
Daniel Benjamin was sworn in as Coordinator for Counterterrorism at the Department of State with the rank of Ambassador-at-Large on May 28, 2009. Prior to his appointment, Ambassador Benjamin was Director of the Center on the United States and Europe and a Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution from December 2006 to May 2009. He spent six years as a senior fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. From 1994 to 1999, Mr. Benjamin served on the National Security Council staff. In 1998-1999, he was director for counterterrorism in the Office of Transnational Threats. In 1994-1997, he served as foreign policy speechwriter and special assistant to President Clinton. Before entering the government, Mr. Benjamin was a foreign correspondent for TIME Magazine and The Wall Street Journal.
Syed Adnan Ali Shah Bukhari
Syed Adnan Ali Shah Bukhari is Associate Research Fellow and Team Leader of South and Central Asia Desk at the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. He has also written for The Jamestown Foundation’s Terrorism Monitor publication.
Peter Chalk is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. He has analyzed such topics as unconventional security threats in Southeast and South Asia; new strategic challenges for the U.S. Air Force in Latin America, Africa, and South Asia; evolving trends in national and international terrorism; Australian defense and foreign policy; international organized crime; the transnational spread of disease; and U.S. military links in the Asia-Pacific region. He is a correspondent for Jane's Intelligence Review and associate editor of Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, one of the foremost journals in the international security field. Chalk has regularly testified before the U.S. Senate on issues pertaining to national and international terrorism and is author of numerous publications on various aspects of low-intensity conflict in the contemporary world. Chalk is also an adjunct professor at the Postgraduate Naval School in Monterey, California, and contractor for the Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, Hawaii, and the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, D.C. Before coming to RAND, Chalk was an assistant professor of politics at the University of Queensland, Brisbane, and a postdoctoral fellow in the Strategic and Defense Studies Centre of the Australian National University, Canberra. Chalk earned his M.A. in political studies and international relations at the University of Aberdeen and his Ph.D. in political science at the University of British Columbia.
Daniel Green is a Soref Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations. A reserve officer with the U.S. Navy, he served most recently as the International Security Assistance Force Joint Command liaison officer to the U.S. embassy’s Office of Interagency Provincial Affairs in Afghanistan (2009-2010). Previously he has also served in Fallujah, Iraq (2007), and with the Department of State as a political advisor to the Tarin Kowt Provincial Reconstruction Team in Uruzgan Province, Afghanistan (2005-2006). Since 2001, he has held several senior advisory positions dealing with the Middle East, Central Asia, and NATO/Europe in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Department of State. Mr. Green is currently working on his dissertation for a Ph.D. in political science at George Washington University, and his first book, The Valley’s Edge: A Year with the Pashtuns in the Heartland of the Taliban, was published by Potomac Books in 2011. He writes a monthly column on irregular warfare for Armed Forces Journal.
Michael V. Hayden
Gen. Michael V. Hayden (USAF Ret.) served as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency from 2006 to 2009 and was responsible for overseeing the collection of information concerning the plans, intentions and capabilities of America’s adversaries, producing timely analysis for decision makers, and conducting covert operations to thwart terrorists and other enemies of the United States. Before becoming Director of the CIA, General Hayden served as the country’s first Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence – and was the highest-ranking intelligence officer in the armed forces. Earlier, he served as Commander of the Air Intelligence Agency, Director of the Joint Command and Control Warfare Center, Director of the National Security Agency from 1999 to 2005, and Chief of the Central Security Service. General Hayden graduated from Duquesne University with a bachelor’s degree in history in 1967 and a master’s degree in modern American history in 1969. He was a distinguished graduate of the university’s ROTC program, and began his active military service in 1969. General Hayden is currently a principal at the Chertoff Group in Washington DC and a Board Member at The Jamestown Foundation.
Dr. Thomas Hegghammer is senior research fellow and director of terrorism research at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI) in Oslo. He has previously held fellowships at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton and at Harvard, Princeton and NewYork Universities. He is the author and co-author of several books, including Al-Qaida in Its own Words (Harvard, 2008), Jihad in Saudi Arabia (Cambridge, 2010), and The Meccan Rebellion (Amal Press, 2011). He has also written over thirty academic articles, book chapters and reports on various aspects of jihadism. Dr. Hegghammer is currently writing a book about Abdallah Azzam and editing another on “jihad culture.” He has testified in parliamentary hearings in Canada and Denmark.
Professor Bruce Hoffman is a Board Member of The Jamestown Foundation. He has been studying terrorism and insurgency for more than thirty years. Professor Hoffman is currently a tenured professor in Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service where he is also the Director of both the Center for Peace and Security Studies and of the Security Studies Program. Professor Hoffman previously held the Corporate Chair in Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency at the RAND Corporation and was also Director of RAND’s Washington, D.C. Office.
Professor Hoffman was Scholar-in-Residence for Counterterrorism at the Central Intelligence Agency between 2004 and 2006. He was also adviser on counterterrorism to the Office of National Security Affairs, Coalition Provisional Authority, Baghdad, Iraq during the spring of 2004 and from 2004-2005 was an adviser on counterinsurgency to the Strategy, Plans, and Analysis Office at Multi-National Forces-Iraq Headquarters, Baghdad. Professor Hoffman was also an adviser to the Iraq Study Group.
David C. Isby
David C. Isby is a veteran observer of Afghanistan and Afghan wars. He has testified before US House and Senate committees on Afghanistan and appeared widely in the media. His most recent book is Afghanistan: Graveyard of Empires, published by Pegasus. He is the author of three previous books on Afghanistan: War In a Distant Country: Afghanistan, Invasion and Resistance; War In Afghanistan: The Soviet Empire At High Tide; and Russia's War In Afghanistan. He is also the author of, among other works, books on the forces that fought in Afghanistan, Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army and Armies of NATO's Central Front (with Charles Kamps). Mr. Isby has written over 350 articles on national security in journals including Jamestown Terrorism Monitor, and many other publications. He was an editor for Strategy & Tactics magazine and has designed several award-winning conflict simulations.
Dr. Andrew McGregor is a Senior Editor for Jamestown’s Global Terrorism Analysis program. He is also the Director of Aberfoyle International Security, a Toronto-based agency specializing in security issues related to the Islamic world. He received a PhD from the University of Toronto’s Department of Near and Middle Eastern Civilizations in 2000 and is a former Research Associate of the Canadian Institute of International Affairs. In October 2007 McGregor took over as managing editor of the Jamestown Foundation’s Global Terrorism Analysis publications. He is the author of an archaeological history of Darfur published by Cambridge University in 2001 and publishes frequently on international security issues. His latest book is A Military History of Modern Egypt, published by Praeger Security International in 2006. McGregor provides commentary on military and security issues for newspapers (including the New York Times, USA Today, and The Financial Times), as well as making frequent appearances on radio (BBC, CBC Radio, VOA, Radio Canada International) and television (CBC Newsworld, CTV Newsnet, Foxnews and others).
Animesh Roul is a co-founder and presently, the Executive Director (Research) of the Society for the Study of Peace and Conflict, New Delhi. He is involved with independent think tanks, media houses, and policy organizations in India and abroad and contributes regularly to web portals, Newspapers, and scholarly journals. In his earlier stint he worked as a Research Associate at New Delhi based Institute for Conflict Management. Mr. Roul holds a master's degree in Modern Indian History and received a Master of Philosophy (M.Phil.) degree from the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. He specializes in Islamic fundamentalism, WMD terrorism, armed conflict and issues relating to arms control and proliferations in South Asia. His views appeared in Jerusalem Post and La Clave, among others. Mr Roul has written for Terrorism Focus/Monitor (Jamestown Foundation), ISN Security Watch, South Asia Intelligence Review and Peace and Conflict Monitor.
Jacques Roussellier is an international political consultant and an instructor at American Military University. Between 2003 and 2006, he worked as the Specialist Ombudsman with the International Finance Corporation at the World Bank Group. Mr. Roussellier also served as a spokesperson for the United Nations Peace-Keeping Operations in Western Sahara (1999-2001), where he was actively engaged in UN activities in the region. He was also a Political Affairs Officer with the United Nations peacekeeping operations in Tajikistan and the Central African Republic (1997-1999). Mr. Roussellier was the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) coordinator of international election observers for the first democratically held elections in Eastern Europe, Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia; he then assisted these countries’ democratic transition as OSCE Human Rights Advisor between 1992 and 1997.
Mr. Roussellier holds degrees from the University of Geneva, the Graduate Institute of Public Administration at Lausanne University, and an MA and MALD from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He is the author of several articles, including in the Journal of North African Studies, International Negotiation, the Middle East Journal Book Review. He has written for the Washington Times, Middle East Times and UPI, been featured by the Middle East Institute, and has testified before the United States Congress.
Michael W. S. Ryan
Dr. Michael W.S. Ryan is a Senior Fellow at The Jamestown Foundation and an adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute. He is currently finishing a book on al-Qaeda’s political military strategy based on Arabic language sources. Dr. Ryan also acts as an independent consultant and researcher on Middle Eastern security issues.
Dr. Ryan served as Senior Vice President at The Middle East Institute in Washington. D.C. (2008-2009). The White House appointed him as Vice President in The Millennium Challenge Corporation (2006-2008). Previously, Dr. Ryan held senior positions in the Departments of State, Defense, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency after joining the U.S. federal government in 1979 as a Middle East/North Africa analyst for the Department of Defense.
In 1981, Dr. Ryan earned a Ph.D. from the Department of Near Eastern Languages and Civilizations at Harvard University. During his graduate study, he spent three years in Egypt under Fulbright, Smithsonian, and Center for Arabic Study Abroad fellowships. He was also a fellow at The American Research Center in Egypt during this period. He received his undergraduate degree from St. John’s College in Annapolis, Maryland.
Eric Schmitt, 52, is a senior writer for The New York Times who covers terrorism issues. For 20 years, he has covered military and national security affairs for The Times. Since the 9/11 attacks, he has made more than a dozen reporting trips to Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. He graduated from Williams College in 1982, and received a Knight Journalism Fellowship at Stanford University in 2006-07. He was twice a member of a team of New York Times reporters awarded the Pulitzer Prize. Schmitt is co-author, with Thom Shanker, of Counterstrike: The Untold Story of America’s Secret Campaign Against Al Qaeda.
Thom Shanker is a correspondent covering the Pentagon, the military and national security for The New York Times. He has conducted numerous reporting trips to Afghanistan and Iraq, and has embedded in the field. He joined The Times in 1997. Prior to being named Pentagon correspondent in May of 2001, he was assistant Washington editor, responsible for managing the newspaper’s coverage of foreign policy, national security and economics from the Washington bureau. Before joining The Times, Mr. Shanker was The Chicago Tribune’s Moscow bureau chief (1985-1988), senior European correspondent, based in Germany (1992-1995), and then The Tribune’s foreign editor.
Mr. Shanker is co-author, with Eric Schmitt, of “Counterstrike: The Untold Story of America’s Secret Campaign Against Al Qaeda,” published in August of 2011 by Times Books and Henry Holt and Co. He has also been published in The New York Times Sunday Magazine, The New York Review of Books, The New Republic, The American Journalism Review and Military Review.
Murad Batal al-Shishani
Murad Batal al-Shishani is an Islamic groups and terrorism issues analyst based in London. He is a specialist on Islamic Movements in Chechnya and in the Middle East. He is a regular contributor to several publications in both Arabic and English. He is also author of the book “The Islamic Movement in Chechnya and the Chechen-Russian Conflict 1990-2000”, Amman, 2001 (in Arabic), and “Iraqi Resistance: National Liberation vs. Terrorism: A Quantitative Study,” November 2005 Iraqi Studies Series, Issue 5, Gulf Research Center-Dubai.
Stephen Tankel is an assistant professor at American University and a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His research focuses on insurgency, terrorism, the evolution of non-state armed groups and militancy in South Asia. He is also an adjunct staff member at the RAND Corporation. Tankel has conducted field research on conflicts and militancy in India, Pakistan, Algeria, Lebanon, and the Balkans. He recently completed a PhD thesis on the evolution of jihadi groups since 9/11 in the War Studies department at King's College London, and plans to defend in April 2010. His new book, Storming the World Stage: The Story of Lashkar-e-Taiba, was published jointly by Hurst & Co. and Columbia University Press this year.
Michelle Van Cleave
Michelle Van Cleave, a member of Jamestown’s Board of Directors, served as the National Counterintelligence Executive under President George W. Bush. As the head of U.S. counterintelligence, she was responsible for providing strategic direction to and ensuring the integration of counterintelligence activities across the federal government. She has also held senior staff positions in the Congress, including staff director of the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Technology, Terrorism and Government Information, Minority Counsel to the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, and professional staff member of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations; and in the White House, where she was Assistant Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy under Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. A lawyer and consultant in private life, she is currently a principal with the Jack Kemp Foundation, helping to establish and manage programs to develop, engage and recognize exceptional leaders.